Stock Watch: Thoroughly Moderna Missteps

When Clinical And Regulatory Successes Fail To Impress Investors

 
• By Andy Smith
  
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When life hands a biotech company the equivalent of good grapes, the expectations are for its products to be the equivalent of fine wine. Before that Moderna looks likely to make lemonade.

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ANDY SMITH OFFERS A LIFE SCIENCE INVESTOR'S PERSPECTIVE ON BIOPHARMA BUSINESS

Investors in companies like Pfizer Inc.* and Roche Holding AG have discovered that developing vaccines, drugs and diagnostics that helped resolve the pandemic has been a double-edged sword. For example, Pfizer’s stock price rose by about 45% between mid-2019 and the end of 2021 when the clinical and commercial successes of its antiviral Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) to treat COVID-19 and its mRNA vaccine to prevent it – Comirnaty – dominated the company’s investment proposition. After Paxlovid and Comirnaty sales peaked in 2022, Pfizer’s business returned to a more sedate pace. In consequence, Pfizer’s stock price has almost halved since the December 2021 peak as unfavorable revenue comparisons continually remind investors of its pandemic heyday.

A slightly different dynamic was seen with the NASDAQ Biotech Index (NBI). Like Pfizer’s stock price, it rose by almost...

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